Covid Dashboard
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Inhalt / Contents
Kollektive Krisenresilienz: Open Data für den Instrumentenflug
Der Herausforderer bei der globalen Pandemie ist omnipräsent und vor allem: unsichtbar. Dass das Unbekannte Entscheider in den "Sichtflug" zwingt erfordert schnelle Strategien, um zum "Instrumentenflug" zu kommen. Deswegen entstehen allen Orts "Dashboards", digitale Amaturenbretter, die Informationen wie im Cockpit kontextuell und im Überblick visualisieren. Noch nie waren es so viele wie in den letzten Wochen, die mehr oder weniger hastig programmiert und ins Internet gestellt bzw. auf die Bildschirme der Krisen-Stäbe geworfen wurden.
Die Grundlage dafür sind Daten. Deren Erhebungsmethoden, Qualität und zeitnahe Verfügbarkeit sind elementar für einen tauglichen Instrumentenflug. Und: ihre ubiquitäre Nutzung. Die Herausforderungen sind zu komplex und spezifisch, als dass Grundlagen für Evidenz und Orientierung nur den organisatorischen Verantwortungen vorbehalten bleiben können. Das gilt auch für all die weiteren komplexen Aufgaben, die vor der Menschheit liegen. Deswegen sind zuverlässige und belastbare Dateninfrastrukturen und die Nutzung von nicht personenbezogenen Daten als Open Data von öffentlichen Stellen sowie privaten Unternehmen (wenn das Gemeinwohl das Partikularinteresse überwiegt) eine kardinale Notwendigkeit für evidenzbasierte Entscheidungen (Evidence Based Policymaking) sowie datengetriebene Verwaltung bzw. Krisenmanagement.
Open Data, Open Government und die kollaborative sowie co-kreative Zusammenarbeit zwischen den Sektoren ist ein Fundament zeitgemäßer Krisenresilienz. Der Open Knowledge Foundation Deutschland ist hierzu eine sehr kompakte Handreichung gelungen, die eine Open-Government-orientierte Krisenresilienz kompakt sowie holitsisch mit der Corona-Krise kontextualisiert. Der Arbeitskreis Open Government Partnership Baden-Württemberg hatte auch schon am 16.3. einen Blogpost in diesem Kontext mit internationalen Verweisen veröffentlicht. Es ergibt sich zunehmend entlang von Corona (wie auch schon bei der Migrationswelle) ein Ensemble aus Aktivitäten und Ereignissen, die den Wert von Open Government an diesem konkreten Case ein Gesicht geben. Hierzu gehören auch der Hackathon #wirvsvirus sowie der Appell zur Digitalen Zivilgesellschaft.
Die Bundesregierung und damit Deutschland will spätestens ab 4. Mai von den pauschalen Maßnahmen der letzten Wochen zum Schutz der Bürger vor Cov-2 zu einer Strategie maßgeschneiderter Maßnahmen übergehen. Das ist Präzisionsarbeit für alle Gewerke. Um so zuverlässiger müssen die Instrumente zur Orientierung und die nötigen Daten sein. Deswegen sollen Testkapazitäten und weitere digitale Lösungen zur Erhebung von Daten und Ermittlung der aktuellen Lage sowie der Infektionsketten voran getrieben werden.
Neben Homeoffice, E-Government und Open Source CivicTech-Anwendungen, die in den letzten Wochen bei vielen Entscheidern ein nie dagewesenes Interesse geweckt haben und wozu es dabei zu etlichen Einsichten kam sollte nun das Thema Daten und Open Data ein zentrales Handlungsfeld der Regierungen bei Bund, Land und Kommunen werden.
Das Glory Covid Dashboard (siehe unten)
Um noch etwas den Appetit auf das Covid-Daten-Thema zu bereiten habe ich das Oster-Wochenende genutzt, um aus meinen Beobachtungen der letzten Wochen die interessantesten Datenprojekte und Datenvisualisierungen, die ich gefunden habe zusammenzustellen und zu kommentieren. Die gängigen Dashboards und Visualisierungen mit den (recht aussagelosen) Fall-Kurven zu bestätigten Corona-Fällen habe ich außen vor gelassen. Viele davon sind mit Open Data, mindestens aber mit frei zugänglichen Daten entstanden. Die Beispiele für die Dinge, die mit einem globalen Datenfluss enstehen können habe ich versucht entlang von Handlungsfeldern zu ordnen: Observation, Verhaltensanalyse, Stimmungslage, Kapazitäten, Maßnahmen, Modelle, Serious Games und Crowdsourcing, Evaluation sowie historische Orientierung.
Andrew J. Zahuranec and Stefaan G. Verhulst von The GovLab mit dem wir als Politics For Tomorrow immer wieder zusammenarbeiten - derzeit eben zum Thema Collective Crisis Intelligence - haben die Open-Data-Bedarfe in diesem Blog-Beitrag in 12 weitere Domänen strukturiert und Beispiele gesammelt. Das von Beth Noveck, die einstige Civic-Tech- und Open-Government-Beraterin im Weißem Haus der Obama-Administration, und Stefaan Verhulst gegründete The GovLab observiert und unterstützt seit langem u.a. auch Datenkollaborative, Netzwerke in denen themenbezogen bereits Open Data geteilt werden und zirkulieren.
High Value Data Liste der EU und Corona
Derzeit bereitet die EU Kommission eine Liste mit potenziellen High Value Data vor, die als Verordnung die Bereitstellung von den in ihr enthaltenen Datasets als Open Data über alle föderalen Ebenen der EU ab kommenden Jahr sicherstellen soll. Wir konnten als Open Government Netzwerk bereits mit der Bitte, die Indikatoren der UN-Nachhaltigkeitsziele und zuletzt das Handlungsfeld Gesundheit in den derzeitigen Assessment-Prozess der EU Kommission zur Entwicklung der Verordnung aufzunehmen wichtige Impulse einbringen.
Hilfreich ist es nun, die Task Force der EU Kommission bei der Konkretisierung von Open-Data-Bedarfen und die möglichst präzise Beschreibung der benötigten Datensätze zu unterstützen.
Zur Ermittlung von Daten-Bedarfen u. -Vorschlägen habe ich deswegen eine Datenbank mit Ein- und Ausgabe vorbereitet und nun im Zuge von Corona auf das entsprechende Themenfeld eingegrenzt:
https://www.oliverrack.eu/ogpbw/coviddata
Hier kann jeder entsprechende Eingaben machen. Die Ein-/Ausgabe ist jetzt schon auf produktiv geschaltet.
Gerne Feedback hier: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oliverrack/
English
Open Data for instrument flight out of the crisis
The challenger in the global pandemic is omnipresent and above all: invisible. The fact that "the unknown" forces decision-makers into "visual flight" requires quick strategies to get to "instrument flight" mode. This is why "dashboards" that visualize information as "instrument" in context and at a glance like in the cockpit, are being created everywhere. Never before have there been as many as in recent weeks, more or less hastily programmed and put on the Internet or thrown on the screens of the crisis staffs.
The basis for this is data. Their collection methods, quality and prompt availability are elementary for a suitable instrument flight. And: their ubiquitous use. The challenges are too complex and specific to leave the basis for evidence and orientation solely to organisational responsibilities. This also applies to all the other complex tasks that lie ahead of humanity. For this reason, reliable and resilient data infrastructures and the use of non-personal data as open data from public authorities and private companies (when the common good outweighs the particular interest) are a cardinal necessity for evidence-based policymaking and data-driven administration or crisis management.
Open Data, Open Government and the collaborative and co-creative collaboration between sectors is a foundation of contemporary crisis resilience. The Open Knowledge Foundation Germany has succeeded in creating a very compact handbook that provides a compact and holistic context for open government oriented to crisis resilience in relation to the corona crisis. The working group Open Government Partnership Baden-Württemberg had already published a blog post in this context with international references on 16.3.2020. Along Corona (as was already the case with the migration wave), an ensemble of activities and events is increasingly emerging that gives a face to the value of Open Government in this specific case. This includes the german hackathon #wirvsvirus with over 40.000 participants as well as the appeal to digital civil society.
The Federal Government, and thus Germany, wants to move from the blanket measures and rules of recent weeks to protect citizens from Cov-2 to a strategy of tailor-made measures by 4 May at the latest. This is precision work for all. All the more reliable must be the instruments for orientation and the necessary data. That is why test capacities and other digital solutions for collecting data and determining the current situation and chains of infection ought to be be promoted.
In addition to home office, e-government and open source CivicTech applications, which have aroused unprecedented traction among many decision-makers in recent weeks and which have led to much more of their understanding, the topic of data and open data should now become a central field of action for governments at federal, state and local level.
The Glory Covid Dashboard
To stimulate appetite for the Covid - and Open-Data topic I used the Easter weekend to compile and comment on the most interesting data projects and data visualizations I found from my observations of the last weeks. I left out the common dashboards and visualizations with the (rather meaningless) case curves of confirmed corona cases. Many of them were created with Open Data, but at least with freely accessible data. I tried to arrange the examples for the things that can be created with a global data flow along these fields of action: Observation, Behavioral Insights, Sentiment Insights, Capacity, Models, Serious Games and Crowdsourcing, Actions, Evaluation, Historical Insights
Andrew J. Zahuranec and Stefaan G. Verhulst from The GovLab, with whom we as Politics For Tomorrow work together again and again - currently on the topic of Collective Crisis Intelligence - have structured the Open Data needs in this blog post 12 more domains and collected examples. The GovLab, founded by Beth Noveck, the former civic-tech and open-government consultant in the Obama administration's White House, and Stefaan Verhulst, has long been observing and supporting data collaborations, networks in which Open Data is already shared and circulating on a topic-related basis.
High Value Data List of the EU and Corona
The EU Commission is currently preparing a list of potential High Value Data, which is intended as a regulation to ensure the provision of the datasets it contains as Open Data across all federal levels of the EU from next year. As an Open Government Network, we have already been able to provide important impetus by requesting that the indicators of the UN sustainability goals and, most recently, the field of action of health be included in the current assessment process of the EU Commission for the development of the regulation.
It is now helpful to support the Task Force of the EU Commission in concretizing Open Data requirements and in describing the required data sets as precisely as possible.
In order to determine data requirements and proposals, I have therefore prepared a database with input and output and have now narrowed it down to the relevant topic area in the course of Corona:
https://www.oliverrack.eu/ogpbw/coviddata
Anyone can make appropriate entries here. The input/output is already switched to productive.
Gladly feedback here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oliverrack/
"I call on all countries, companies, and research institutions to support open data, open science, and open collaboration so all people can enjoy the benefits of science and research."
19:09 - Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO)
Observation Epidemiology / Ansteckungsrate, Virulenz und Pathogenität (CFR)
Die sofortige und fortlaufende Sondierung und Observation aller Erkenntnisse sowie der Sachstände und der Aufbau (falls nicht schon bestehend) der Mechanismen hierfür - aber auch für interne und externe Kommunikation - sind das erste Handlungsfeld. Dabei sind alle Ressourcen und Effekte der Netzwerk- und Informationsgesellschaft sowie geeignete Instrumente der Recherche, Analyse und Darstellung heranzuziehen.
The immediate and continuous sounding out and observation of all findings and the status quo and the establishment (if not already existing) of the mechanisms for this - but also for internal and external communication - are the first field of action. All resources and effects of the network and information society as well as suitable instruments for research, analysis and presentation are to be used.
Looking back, we now know that COV-2 must have spread unnoticed in Europe for at least the first half of February, most likely much earlier. In mid-February, the first strong superspreader events were already taking place, such as the event of the Free Church in Southern Alsace from 17 to 24 February with around 2000 participants and the carnival event on 15 February in Heinsberg in Germany with 300 participants. The view of Nextstrain shows the trace of the virus in the second half of February.
It is also interesting to take a look at the table by South Korea, where the number of cases is not only broken down very transparently according to administrative structure, but also according to the most important clusters or superspreader events. This creates more orientation for the population and helps to assign to a possible risk. Even at first glance, certain keywords that are repeated are conspicuous: churches, call centers and clinics. It would be interesting to know which clusters have developed from the "Ischgl" supercluster (more on this below). It is also interesting to see the high proportion of the registration numbers that these clusters have. Either generically or because the cluster track has been tested more specifically following the cluster track? The graph on the right shows that Covid-19 is currently temporarily the third most frequent cause of death in the USA. The fact that the animation moves only gradually from China via Europe to the USA may indicate that the travel ban from China through the USA on 31 January had an elementary effect on the expansion dynamics or it has been tested lately.
Case numbers in Germany in the last few days with a clear first derivation (in blue), i.e. the slope of the case curve. Here a further strong reduction of the percentage increase is shown over Easter. This can again (as on 5th/6th April) be the weekend and holiday effect, because the reporting chain of the offices is incomplete. This is because the curve always seems to move downwards.
Research Observation
As of March 13th, the most affected province of Bergamo (2,368 cases) has largely overcome the province of Lodi (1,133 cases) where the outbreak started and the containment measures were introduced first, as shown in Figure S3. We note that social distancing interventions were invoked on Feb 23rd in Lodi but until March 8th in Bergamo.Italy is one of the oldest populations in the world with 23.3% its population over age 65, compared to 12% in China (3).Italy is also a country characterized by extensive intergenerational contacts which are supported by a high degree of residential proximity between adult children and their parents (4). Even when inter-generational families do not live together, daily contacts among non-co-resident parent-child pairs are frequent. Many Italians also often prefer to live close to their extended family and commute to work daily.
The project "Destlling Data into Knowledge" during Germany's #wirvsvirus hackathon is c onnecting information and insights to gather knowledge about the virus. It analysis clinical studies using AI and machine learning enabling the application to guide the user through data, to the information relevant form him, within less than 10 steps and to plot visual representations, enhancing the overview and identification of connected information.Alone in the medical field there are over 2mil papers published per year. This makes it challenging to find data of relevance - e.g. for finding a therapy or cure against COVID. For research it is essential to use the most recent insights to analyse, organise and build upon on them to gather knowledge.
The first map shows the extent to which Ischgl holidaymakers have spread over Europe. The second map shows the frequency of Covid-19 infected persons in parts of Germany who had returned from Ischgl. The BR has evaluated numerous German press reports and found 341 cases from 101 German districts and independent towns in which travellers were presumably infected in Ischgl - spread over almost the whole of Germany. The third graph of data facts shows the strong spread of the disease among the regional population in idyllic Tyrol, especially in the district of Landeck, where Ischgl is also located.
Behavioral Insights
Eine elementare Orientierung für politische Entscheidungen und Voraussagen stellen Verhaltensanalysen dar. Grundlage sind und waren bisher Panels der sozialwissenschaftlichen Institute. Mit der zunehmenden Datenerhebung, sei es direkt oder als "Nebenprodukt" kommen zunehmend Möglichkeiten hinzu, dieses Daten als Indikatoren für das Verhalten von Individuen und Kollektiven auszuwerten. Oft kann dies bei zeitkritischen Szenarien von Vorteil gegenüber von klassischen Erhebungen sein.
Behavioural analyses are an elementary orientation for political decisions and forecasts. The basis is and has been panels of social science institutes. With the increasing collection of data, either directly or as a "by-product", there are more and more possibilities to evaluate this data as indicators for the behaviour of individuals and collectives. This can often be an advantage over traditional surveys in time-critical scenarios.
Price manipulation and observation robots immediately registered this demand at the end of January in Germany and controlled or recorded the price. Thus, after initial corrections over the afternoon of 28 January, the day on which the Starnberg case became known, some traders on Ebay and Amazon saw the price of a mouthguard bundle rise fourfold in the early hours of 29 January, following initial corrections. By the end of February, the price of an FFP2 mask had risen to 3000%. These data sources should be used in particular for monitoring systemically important goods
To understand the impact of COVID-19 on a wide range of stakeholders within the aviation industry, it is worthwhile to take a look at air cargo - with a particular focus on how the pandemic will affect air traffic management and the flow of key goods and services. Since March 2020, traffic in the aviation industry has declined from an average of around 100,000 flights per day to only 32,000 flights on 4 April 2020. Daily flight hours have decreased by 78 percent compared to typical global averages in January 2020. While the total number of flights worldwide has decreased significantly on a daily average, the data also show that there are still a significant number of flights worldwide. As early as mid-March (Figure) there was a rapid increase in flight cancellations.In combination with the risk assessment on Cov-2 propagation via passenger air traffic of the Humboldt University (see below), risk predictions can also be made here on the current situation.
The German Commercial Internet Exchange (DE-CIX) is an Internet node in Frankfurt am Main and the largest in the world in terms of data throughput. The higher demand for data throughput caused by the lockdown through online games, video streaming and of course video conferencing in the home office immediately became apparent here. The consortium of the Content Delivery Network (CDN), a group of servers that deliver large media files in particular, responded very quickly by throttling the data throughput of content in order to maintain bandwidth and keep services stable. Other services such as Office 365 and YouTube have also taken corresponding measures.
Sentiment Insights
Ein weiterer sehr wichtiger Faktor ist die Stimmungslage in der Bevölkerung, um die mentale Tragfähigkeit von Maßnahmen gegen andere Faktoren abzuwägen und in Entscheidungen einfließen zu lassen oder Kompromisse sowie Instrumente auszuloten, die diese Tragfähigkeit stützen bzw. sicherstellen. Zudem sollte auf entsprechende Signale mit notwendigen Maßnahmen reagiert werden, wo diese in einer Güterabwägung vertretbar sind.
Capacity
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https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister
https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister
https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister
The Lens has assembled free and open datasets “COVID-19 Datasets” of patent documents, scholarly research works metadata and biological sequences from patents, and deposited them in a machine-readable and explorable form. The interactive tool helps to understand the landscape of patent and research works in coronaviruses and COVID-19 domain. The covidlens R dataset package consists of 43,075 patent publications (applications, grants, design patents) that are relevant to COVID-19, MERS and SARS and subjects such as respirators and surgical masks. The literature dataset consists of 66,233 scientific publications on the same subjects.
The World Intellectual Property Organization’s COVID-19 patent index provides a free tool to facilitate the retrieval of information contained in published patent documents that may be useful for innovators developing new technologies to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 patent index allows users to search, retrieve and analyze valuable sources of specifically selected technologies in 10 languages.
Article “Research and Development on Therapeutic Agents and Vaccines for COVID-19 and Related Human Coronavirus Diseases” provides patent analysis of coronavirus-related biologics includes therapeutic antibodies, cytokines, and nucleic acid-based therapies targeting virus gene expression as well as various types of vaccines. More than 500 patents disclose methodologies of these four biologics with the potential for treating and preventing coronavirus infections, which may be applicable to COVID-19
Models
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You are kindly invited to experiment with the various policy interventions and ascertain that outcomes are not always as trivial as purported by mainstream models. Think for instance of how early expiration or rather immunity of ‘gate-keepers’ would stop further diffusion – so is containment always good? And who should be isolated or quarantined? Are more local or focused options possible?
We are aware that the world we model is yet incomplete and many more policy interventions are possible. At this point, however, we use this policy laboratory to illustrate and raise awareness of complex system properties, interlocked layers of diffusion and the possibilities of dynamic mixes of location-based or network-position based policy interventions. Moreover, the model may form the basis for enhancing our phenomenological understanding of epidemics in real-world complexity as well as for engineering “next-gen” policy interventions exploiting spatio-temporal features of the world as well as social network relationships beyond indiscriminate total lockdowns.
Serious Games, Automatische Entscheidungen und Crowdsourcing
Actions
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Evaluation
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Wie die Londoner Datenanalysten feststellen, ist Deutschland in Europa das sicherste und stabilste Land. Die Schweiz und Österreich landen auf den Plätzen zwei und drei. Weit abgeschlagen auf den letzten Plätzen: Italien und Spanien. Auch Frankreich und Großbritannien werden im Ranking weit hinten eingestuft.
Historical Insights
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Ngram Viewer (English): infection,outbreak,virus,epidemic
Ngram Viewer (English, Fiction): infection,outbreak,virus,epidemic
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